Two Russian experts on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN recently made their assessments on the future of Russian and ASEAN relations, saying that developing relations between Russia and ASEAN member states has assumed greater importance in the midst of the world’s evolving political situation and global concerns.
Speaking at the latest round-table discussion organized by the Development Academy of the Philippines’ Council of Fellows and jointly sponsored by the DAP and the Asia Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, Inc., Dr. Victor Sumsky and Dr. Ekaterina Koldunova both said relations between Russia and the ASEAN have to improve even as Russia itself is entering into an alliance with Asian power China.
“The world is again driven by world power rivalry,” said Dr. Sumsky, the director of the ASEAN Center of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), even as he admitted that Russia cannot again be the power that it used to be following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.
‘More equal’
“Although international relations must be much more equal than in the last two decades, there are other powers emerging apart from the United States. China is much more powerful economically now,” Sumsky said.
“Russia and China for the last 20 years started to come together. Although the relations are not yet a full-blown political and military alliance, both Russia and China can get together and form a full-blown military alliance if need be.”
Sumsky then said the ASEAN must decide for itself what form of security arrangement can be set up among the region’s member states, saying that the ASEAN has been a little slow in making such arrangements such that more issues have emerged to complicate security concerns even more.
Relatively stable
Dr. Koldunova, meanwhile, said Russia regards the ASEAN as a relatively stable region but is still prone to potential challenges with the existing ambivalence of security arrangements in the region. This is why Russia, she said, believes avenues of cooperation between the country and the region are imperative, as the ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meeting with Russia in April 2016 started to explore.
Koldunova, the deputy dean of the School of Political Affairs and associate professor of the Department of Asian and African Studies of the MGIMO, said that improving bilateral relations between Russia and the Philippines as well as the multilateral relations between her country and the rest of the ASEAN member states is “important.”
“We need to have more connections at more levels,” she said of such relations, explaining that the ASEAN will be the place of “intense” economic development in the future. “We have to learn more about each other.”
Emerging pillars
She said Russia has several emerging pillars of connection with Asia right now, including a strong dialogue and better connection with Japan, traditionally good relations with South Korea since the early ‘90s, and its relations with Southeast Asia despite Russia’s status as not being a trading economy with the region. This, she said, would require other modes of economic engagements with Southeast Asian countries as it is not easy to diversify economically and politically for her country.
Koldunova, however, said that Russia, despite being more European-oriented right now, would have to make adjustments as Asia is becoming an important meeting place for people and different countries, and it would not want to miss the opportunity to become partners with countries in the region.